Posted to The Age (27/10/2012) on 27/10/2012 at 4:05AM
Commenting on "Tale of two cities a happy story for inner suburbs"
http://www.theage.com.au/business/property/tale-of-two-cities-a-happy-story-for-inner-suburbs-20121026-28b7t.htm
Whatever studies undertaken or predictions made for the next two decades cannot be trusted with a six-foot pole. Technology has changed and will continue to change the employment pattern to such unimaginable extent that even futurists and crystal-ball reading gypsies have problems foretelling what is ahead, even just for a decade.
In late 60's and early 70's, Carlton Association campaigned so hard to save Carlton, an inner suburb next to Melbourne CBD, from being declared as a slump. Brunswick and Richmond were not better off then.The houses were small, and many were not well lit.
Decentralisation moved the population to the outskirt of CBD, where factories were erected to produce cars, machineries, food processing, etc. By then footwear and clothing industries began to decline and eventually died after tariff was removed. Brick veneer homes were built and a generation of middle income class established. Decentralisation was so successful that the CBD went into a tail spin, and drastic efforts were made to lure people back.
Manufacturing and related industries employed a lot of people. Frankston and Dandenong were the new rich suburbs. Good time needs good money, and our labour cost could not compete with then backward developing countries. Very soon they were handed over "free" high-tech knowledge by the developed and advanced countries. Factories began to close, and set off a chain reaction up-stream and down-stream industries.
Online businesses will have the same impact on brick-and-mortar retail outlets. In addition, online education will produce the same fallout to the teaching sectors.
The question then is "where will employment be found?". Pessimistically speaking, CBD will no longer be the hub, and travelling to work in the CBD will be the thing of the past!
Commenting on "Tale of two cities a happy story for inner suburbs"
http://www.theage.com.au/business/property/tale-of-two-cities-a-happy-story-for-inner-suburbs-20121026-28b7t.htm
Whatever studies undertaken or predictions made for the next two decades cannot be trusted with a six-foot pole. Technology has changed and will continue to change the employment pattern to such unimaginable extent that even futurists and crystal-ball reading gypsies have problems foretelling what is ahead, even just for a decade.
In late 60's and early 70's, Carlton Association campaigned so hard to save Carlton, an inner suburb next to Melbourne CBD, from being declared as a slump. Brunswick and Richmond were not better off then.The houses were small, and many were not well lit.
Decentralisation moved the population to the outskirt of CBD, where factories were erected to produce cars, machineries, food processing, etc. By then footwear and clothing industries began to decline and eventually died after tariff was removed. Brick veneer homes were built and a generation of middle income class established. Decentralisation was so successful that the CBD went into a tail spin, and drastic efforts were made to lure people back.
Manufacturing and related industries employed a lot of people. Frankston and Dandenong were the new rich suburbs. Good time needs good money, and our labour cost could not compete with then backward developing countries. Very soon they were handed over "free" high-tech knowledge by the developed and advanced countries. Factories began to close, and set off a chain reaction up-stream and down-stream industries.
Online businesses will have the same impact on brick-and-mortar retail outlets. In addition, online education will produce the same fallout to the teaching sectors.
The question then is "where will employment be found?". Pessimistically speaking, CBD will no longer be the hub, and travelling to work in the CBD will be the thing of the past!