In early January 2008, I wrote an email to some friends indicating that by the end of February we would see the official announcement of real estate downturn, and as early as end of October China would start to realise the negative impact of global financial turmoil, which would badly affect Australian economy. These actually took place around the said dates.
I used to make all kinds of predictions but never put them in black and white. Most knew and heard about predictions would either forgot or discarded them as lucky guesses. Some of my predictions indeed came through initially as hunches or gut-feelings, but after further analysis and refinement, these would turn out to be fairly accurate, and definitely cannot be considered as lucky guesses.
The financial crises come and go. It is more crucial to predict when a crisis is due than when it will subside. Many financial gurus, decision makers and politicians behaved like ostriches, burying their heads in the sand, ignoring and concealing signs of downturn, and responding reactively and at worst impulsively when bad news strikes or reveals.
In recent years, mining replaces the sheep’s back as the money spinner for the Australian economy. The mining boom created 1.1 million jobs directly and indirectly, and made many very wealthy. The heavy reliance on mining took its toll - the collapse of manufacturing industries in many parts of the world, particularly China, leads to the Australian economic demise.
When Kevin Rudd became the Prime Minister, he was so confident that the government’s policies could insulate Australia from global financial crisis. He thought China’s boom would not end, but it does. He and his Ministers made mistakes after mistakes by spending the hard earned reserves by the previous government on impulse decisions. This appears to be a repeat of Gough Whitlam’s years of uncontrolled spending on many reforms and hand-outs, which brought Australia’s treasury to the knees. Very likely, the Rudd government will be a one-term government, and there is a 50 percent chance of an early election, possibly soon after the 2010 budget is brought down.
2009 is a very unusual year for Australia due to the fact that Australia Day falls on the same day as the Chinese New Year, 26th January. Many Australians return to work after Australia Day, but unfortunately large number of them will receive termination notices within 2 weeks. Compounding to the Chinese New Year 15 day-celebration whereby many Chinese employers may hold back the sacking until the auspicious days have lapsed.
Employment tsunami is the outcome of the financial meltdown. The real crunch will be recognised officially with the use D word replacing the R word in news reporting worldwide between 10th and 12th February, 2009, depending on which part of the international dateline the country lays. It is likely that 25,000 jobs will be loss between 26th January and 12th February 2009.
The decline will continue and lasts for four and a half years, or until mid-2013. The official unemployment rate may be around 10%, but I estimated the total official and hidden unemployment to be 19.4% or about 2.5 million. There will be a lot more bankruptcies, mental illness patients, suicides, marriage breakups, and burglaries / thefts.
There is a Chinese saying, “to untie the bell requires the person who tied it originally”. In other words, the USA is the one that can lead the world back to financial normality.
I used to make all kinds of predictions but never put them in black and white. Most knew and heard about predictions would either forgot or discarded them as lucky guesses. Some of my predictions indeed came through initially as hunches or gut-feelings, but after further analysis and refinement, these would turn out to be fairly accurate, and definitely cannot be considered as lucky guesses.
The financial crises come and go. It is more crucial to predict when a crisis is due than when it will subside. Many financial gurus, decision makers and politicians behaved like ostriches, burying their heads in the sand, ignoring and concealing signs of downturn, and responding reactively and at worst impulsively when bad news strikes or reveals.
In recent years, mining replaces the sheep’s back as the money spinner for the Australian economy. The mining boom created 1.1 million jobs directly and indirectly, and made many very wealthy. The heavy reliance on mining took its toll - the collapse of manufacturing industries in many parts of the world, particularly China, leads to the Australian economic demise.
When Kevin Rudd became the Prime Minister, he was so confident that the government’s policies could insulate Australia from global financial crisis. He thought China’s boom would not end, but it does. He and his Ministers made mistakes after mistakes by spending the hard earned reserves by the previous government on impulse decisions. This appears to be a repeat of Gough Whitlam’s years of uncontrolled spending on many reforms and hand-outs, which brought Australia’s treasury to the knees. Very likely, the Rudd government will be a one-term government, and there is a 50 percent chance of an early election, possibly soon after the 2010 budget is brought down.
2009 is a very unusual year for Australia due to the fact that Australia Day falls on the same day as the Chinese New Year, 26th January. Many Australians return to work after Australia Day, but unfortunately large number of them will receive termination notices within 2 weeks. Compounding to the Chinese New Year 15 day-celebration whereby many Chinese employers may hold back the sacking until the auspicious days have lapsed.
Employment tsunami is the outcome of the financial meltdown. The real crunch will be recognised officially with the use D word replacing the R word in news reporting worldwide between 10th and 12th February, 2009, depending on which part of the international dateline the country lays. It is likely that 25,000 jobs will be loss between 26th January and 12th February 2009.
The decline will continue and lasts for four and a half years, or until mid-2013. The official unemployment rate may be around 10%, but I estimated the total official and hidden unemployment to be 19.4% or about 2.5 million. There will be a lot more bankruptcies, mental illness patients, suicides, marriage breakups, and burglaries / thefts.
There is a Chinese saying, “to untie the bell requires the person who tied it originally”. In other words, the USA is the one that can lead the world back to financial normality.