Debt spiral looming for Australians

Posted to Herald Sun (18/5/2011) on 18/5/2011 at 1:53 AM
Commenting on "Debt spiral looming for Australians"
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/more-news/debt-spiral-looming-for-australians/story-fn7x8me2-1226057787036

Australia is definitely heading towards a recession. The truth lies in the trilogy of negative demand - real properties, cars and household items.

In recent months, the supply of properties in the market has increased, but there are many people who cannot afford to buy. They have neither the earning capacity to convince the bank to lend them money, nor the ability to repay after the initial down payment. Renovation market has also slowed down.

Car is the largest personal asset item. Car sales have also slumped, and compounding the problem is the increasing petrol prices which turn away potential buyers from buying bigger cars or 4-wheel drives.

David Jones, Myers and JB HiFi are reporting slow sales for the past few months. This is the third and critical negative demand that puts the nail in the economy coffin.

Glenn Stevens and his RBA team are just not good enough to come up with inaccurate forecasts month after month. Sitting in the boardroom, looking at graphs on computer and talking with big businesses and then come up with the economic rationale to increase interest rate is unacceptable. Not all Australians are miners, and not all 95% employed are full-time workers!

Miranda Kerr set to return to Australia for David Jones in retail war

Posted to Herald Sun (15/5/2011) on 15/5/2011 at 2:08 PM (Not published)
Commenting on “Miranda Kerr set to return to Australia for David Jones in retail war”
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/entertainment/confidential/miranda-back-to-fight-for-djs/story-e6frf96o-1226056171317

David Jones has recalled its biggest asset Miranda Kerr. If the consumers are not careful with their spending, the banks will be recalling the loan by auctioning the mortgagors’ biggest assets - their houses!

Federal Budget 2011 - Swan's blueprint for surplus

Posted to Adelaide Now (11/5/2011) on 11/5/2011 at 1:07 AM
Commenting on “Federal Budget 2011 - Swan's blueprint for surplus”
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/in-depth/swans-blueprint-for-surplus/story-fn8o0uyv-1226053507909

Does it mean that people like me mature-age person need to be retrained to work in mining towns in Western Australia or Queensland, go under the house to fix plumbing or up the roof top to install solar panels? I am well-trained, with post-graduate degree and other qualifications, more than qualified to train the untrained, and yet I find myself unemployed.

I had been a sessional TAFE and VET trainer for 15 years, until the international education bubble burst when the government changed policy. More than half of the international students choose not to come to Australia anymore, and therefore, many trainers like me are unemployed.

Life as a sessional teacher is very tough. We are hard working people, and no dole-bludgers. Each term, we queue up, not at Centrelink, but at the course coordinator office asking whether there is any work for us.

Budget 2011 Let's turn mining boom into job boom

Posted to Herald Sun (11/5/2011) on 11/5/2011 at 12:47 AM
Commenting on “Budget 2011: Let's turn mining boom into job boom, says Wayne Swan”
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/special-reports/federal-budget-2011/story-fn8melax-1226053631468

Does it mean that people like me mature-age person need to be retrained to work in mining towns in Western Australia or Queensland, go under the house to fix plumbing or up the roof top to install solar panels? I am well-trained, with post-graduate degree and other qualifications, more than qualified to train the untrained, and yet I find myself unemployed.

I had been a sessional TAFE and VET trainer for 15 years, until the international education bubble burst when the government changed policy. More than half of the international students choose not to come to Australia anymore, and therefore, many trainers like me are unemployed.

Life as a sessional teacher is very tough. We are hard working people, and no dole-bludgers. Each term, we queue up, not at Centrelink, but at the course coordinator office asking whether there is any work for us. I cannot speak on behalf of other trainers; yes, I do indirectly and crudely beg for work and therefore, money.

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Posted to Herald Sun (11/5/2011) on 11/5/2011 at 1:02 AM

Creating 500000 jobs is pine in the sky; along the way probably more jobs are lost. Realistically the net number is probably negative or negligibly small. Do the politicians understand what training really entails? If this is Asia, where people have the right attitude to learn and want to be trained to excel rather than just be competent, training will be a breeze. Unfortunately, I find that the real success rate of people being trained and achieved proper outcome is far from satisfactory. After so many years in the training / education industry, I can only conclude that we are producing half-bake Rolls Royces instead of top quality T-Fords - it is still a long way to have "mass-produced" skilled workforce.

The mythical unemployment rate of around 5% is just pure nonsense. A person receiving payment for one hour during the survey period is considered as employed. In short, the real hidden unemployment rate should be at least 15% or more.

Many mature-age workers who have lost their jobs turn to running small businesses. Not that they are good at doing so, but they are not untitled to go on the dole queue, like the boat-people or welfare bludgers.

End of 2 of 2

Why June is too soon for an RBA rate rise

Posted to The Age (9/5/2011) on 9/5/2011 at 4:37 PM
Commenting on “Why June is too soon for an RBA rate rise”
http://www.theage.com.au/business/why-june-is-too-soon-for-an-rba-rate-rise-20110509-1eez3.html?

Predictions by Glenn Stevens and his team at RBA are far from satisfactory. Either the economic models used or the way the results produced by the models have been interpreted need to undergo vigorous challenge.

The trilogy of negative demand, as I called it, is a signal for heading towards a recession. This may sound farfetched, naïve and ill-founded, but a rationalist will see the wisdom of this doomsday prediction. The trilogy of negative demands is real properties, cars and household goods including fashions. These three categories of items are in descending sequence in terms of average value. In recent months, we witness the trilogy of negative demands are taking place.

I have written in many blogs and newspaper comments about my predictions, a lot more accurate than what RBA has been predicting. Using dollar value as the key element in prediction is inadequate. The total quantity demand must be taken into consideration for normalisation.

CPI increase, unfortunately, always targets at increase in price which can be due to real reason and artificial manipulation. If quantity demand is increased, causing shortage of supply and thus pushing up the price, then there is room to call for increase in interest rate to dampen the demand. However, it is irrational to increase interest rate because electricity charges, water rates, local petrol prices have gone up, and that the quantity demand of these utilities or items is in fact unchanged or decreased. In short, the total dollar increases bear no relation to the demand curves.